The Bangladesh Crisis and Sheikh Hasina Departure – Effects on India

Sheikh Hasina (now ex-prime minister) is one of South Asia’s most influential leaders, with a legacy that is both celebrated for her contributions to Bangladesh’s development and criticized for her approach to governance. Her leadership has transformed Bangladesh’s economy and society, but it has also raised concerns about democratic backsliding and political repression.

Bangladesh has experienced rapid economic growth during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, but despite this she had to step down from power, since 2018, she has been facing serious allegations of suppressing opposition parties and corruption against many of his party leaders, then the reservation issue proved to be the last nail in the coffin of Sheikh Hasina government.

With the departure of Sheikh Hasina government, we have welcomed another friendly government in our neighborhood and this could have a serious impact on our strategic and economic interests.

Border Security and Refugee Flows:

Political or economic turmoil in Bangladesh may lead to increasing migration across the porous India-Bangladesh border. This could put a burden on the resources of Indian border states such as West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura.

Instability may lead to the growth of extremist groups, posing a security danger to India, particularly in border regions. The existence of militants or rebels utilizing Bangladeshi territory to launch attacks against India can exacerbate tensions.

Instability might increase the risk of human trafficking and other cross-border crimes.

Economic Impact: 

Commercial Disruptions: Bangladesh is a key commercial partner for India. Instability might impede economic lines, especially in India’s northeastern states, which rely on access through Bangladesh.

Investment Uncertainty: Indian enterprises in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure may experience financial losses if their investments in Bangladesh are put at risk.

Regional Geopolitics:

Instability in Bangladesh may allow China to increase its influence in the region, thereby impacting India’s strategic objectives in South Asia.

Bangladesh is a significant member of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). Instability might further weaken this regional body, jeopardizing India’s participation in regional cooperation activities.

Water Sharing and Environmental Concerns:

Disputes over shared rivers, such as the Teesta, may worsen due to instability. Any disruptionto water-sharing arrangements might have serious effects for agriculture and livelihoods in India’s northeastern states.

Political instability may cause disregard of cross-border environmental issues, such as managing common river systems, with long-term ecological effects for both countries.

Cultural and Ethnic Tensions:

Communal Tensions: Instability in Bangladesh, especially if it involves religious or ethnic conflict, could have a spillover effect in India, potentially exacerbating communal tensions, particularly in areas with significant Bangladeshi immigrant populations.

Rohingya Refugee Issue: Bangladesh hosts a large number of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. Instability could lead to increased movement of these refugees into India, complicating the already sensitive issue of their status and rights.

Diplomatic Relations:

Strained Bilateral Ties: If instability in Bangladesh is perceived to be linked to India’s actions or if India is seen as intervening, it could strain diplomatic relations. On the other hand, India may face challenges in balancing support for democratic forces in Bangladesh while maintaining stability.

International Image: India’s handling of the situation in Bangladesh could impact its international relations, particularly with other neighboring countries and global powers interested in South Asian stability.

In summary, instability in Bangladesh can have wide-ranging consequences for India, impacting security, economy, regional geopolitics, and bilateral relations. India’s response to such instability needs to be carefully calibrated to protect its interests while promoting stability in the region.